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Development demand of lithium phosphate
Time：
2020/7/7
New energy vehicles exceed the expected volume, and power batteries are in short supply. Since the beginning of the year, the production of new energy vehicles has continuously exceeded market expectations. According to the Ministry of industry and information technology, the cumulative output of 279000 vehicles from January to November, of which 72000 vehicles were produced in a single month in November, an increase of six times over the same period last year. With the large volume of new energy vehicles, the supply of power batteries is in short supply. This year and next, it is estimated that the new production capacity will be 20gwh, and the demand for raw materials of catalytic battery will be booming.
The supply and demand pattern of lithium phosphate was reversed, and the price continued to rise. We predict that the domestic demand for electrolyte will be 72000 tons in 2016, corresponding to 8600 tons of lithium phosphate demand. At present, the effective capacity of domestic mainstream suppliers is 9000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate is greatly increased. The supply and demand pattern reversed, and the price increase channel was opened, increasing from 85000 yuan / ton in the middle of 2015 to 260000 yuan / ton at present, with an increase of 206%.
The period of production expansion is long and the prosperity can last for more than one year. High technical threshold, strict production process requirements, long time of environmental protection approval and equipment procurement lead to long production expansion cycle, and at the same time, there is a long time for capacity release after expansion. At present, the capacity of mainstream suppliers is concentrated, and the expansion cycle is more than 1.5 years. And because the demand side grew faster than expected, the prosperity of the industry began to increase significantly from the middle of the year. With the gradual release of capacity under construction, the demand gap will be made up in 2017, and the high boom industry is expected to last for more than one year.
Performance flexibility, single ton profit growth. The cost of lithium phosphate is generally around 90000 yuan / ton. With the continuous rise of price, the profit per ton increases rapidly and the performance elasticity is prominent.
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